Superforecasters reveal sources on Trump's first 100 days
Philip Tetlock's superforecasters have told us what they are reading to inform themselves about President Donald McDonald's first 100 days in office. The sources don't include much social media.
The site also posed three questions for the superforecasters to consider:
- Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?
- Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. suspend immigration from any country designated as a state sponsor of terrorism or a terrorist safe haven?
- Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?
Superforecasters read for variety but disagree about the use of partisan sources, Gwyn Garrison on the site reports. Garrison highlights the suggestion that The Heritage Foundation's Blueprint for Reform will be a major inspiration for the Trump administration.
Note: the best assessment by the superforecasters of a Trump win was 30% (among those who forecast a majority vore for Brexit, too).
Source: GoodJudgment site